Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. SF is up 8 cents and near 11.67. SMF is near 382.2. BOF is near 38.22. CH21 is up 1 cent and near 4.25. WH21 is up 8 cents and near 5.91. KWH21 is up 5 cents near 5.56. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. What is key; vaccine, EU trade deal, SA weather, lower Russia/US 2021 wheat crops, China buying, Money flow?
A lot of numbers today. USDA US/World supply and demand report, weekly US export sales.
USDA is expected to estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,691, soybeans 168, wheat 874
USDA is expected to estimates World 2020/21 corn carryout at 289 mmt, soybeans 85, wheat 321
USDA is expected to estimates Brazil 2021 corn crop at 109 mmt, soybeans 132. Conab est today
USDA is expected to estimates Argentina 2021 corn crop at 49 mmt, soybeans 50.
USDA is expected to increase Australia wheat crop from 28.5, Canada from 35.
Weekly US corn export sales est between 700-1,500 mt, soybeans 400-800 and wheat 200-550.
Asian soybean and soymeal prices higher. RSO lower. Palmoil higher. Some forecast drier weather for S Brazil and most of Argentina.
Funds are long soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and corn. Will they hold positions into yearend?
Since 2000, soybean futures have had 3 big rallies; 2001, 2006, 2010. Peaks lasted 1-3 months. High 17.90
Since 2000, corn futures have had 2 big rallies; 2006, 2010. Peaks lasted 1 month. High 8.40
Since 2000, wheat futures have had 2 big rallies; 2006, 2010. Peaks lasted 1 month. Chicago high 13.00
Some feel dry SA weather, China buying, tighter US balance sheets suggest $15 beans, $5 corn and $6.50 wheat.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 17,000 Corn; 9,000 Soybeans; net 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 3,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 283,000 Corn; net long 196,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.
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