Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch but off weekly highs. Crude is unch and near $70. Gold is lower on profit taking. Copper is lower on new China lower demand forecast. Brazil is getting rain. Argentina is drier. Rains are forecast for US Midwest weather and east plains. Big next few weeks with US election, Fed meeting and global geopolitical unrest.
SOYBEANS
SF dropped back below 10.00. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower while palmoil and soyoil were higher. World vegoil prices are higher led by sunoil, sunseed and rapeseed. Matif rapeseed near yearly high. World soymeal prices are lower. Weekly US soybean export sales were 2,150 mt. Export commit is up 8 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9 pct. There may be some pre hedging before weekend. USDA announced 198 mt US beans to unknown. China est sow herd at 40.6 million or down 4 pct ly. In 2021, China est sow herd to be near 43.0 million by 2025.
CORN
CZ is near 4.19. 4.17 is key MA support. Dalian corn futures were lower. Record weekly corn sales helped CZ test 4.24. US commit is up 34 pct vs ly and USDA est of unch and 2,325 mil bu. USDA announced 165 mt US corn to unknown and 227 mt US corn to Japan. US corn export prices are competitive vs Ukraine and South America. Brazil futures are higher. EU also has quality issues due to too much rain. Low water raising US logistic challenges and offering weakness to domestic basis. There may be some pre hedging before weekend.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.79. KWZ is near 5.88. MWZ is near 6.19. Wheat futures pulled by lower east Europe, Australia and Argentina prices and pushed by talk of lower Russia supply and higher Russia prices. There is talk BRICS could open their own grain and currency exchange. There is also talk that Russia could sell wheat directly to 13 countries.
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