Written Commentary
Morning Market Outlook
Grains are lower. SX is down 7 cents and near 9.07. CU is down 3 cents and near 3.21. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.17. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 4.44. Demand uncertainty and US Midwest rain next week may be weighing on grain futures. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 69 yuan in soybeans, up 10 in Corn, up 8 in Soymeal, down 64 in Soyoil, and down 32 in Palm Oil. China sold 4.0 mmt corn from their reserve. 100 pct of what was offered. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August 1 – 20 fell 18.2 percent to 946,338 tons from 1,157,020 tons shipped during July 1 -20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest does see a front bringing light to moderate rainfall to 65% of the region favoring the north and east. Temps are seen moving to average to above as we move into the weekend, next week. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has the European model calling for close to average rainfall and below average temps. The GFS has average temps and average to below average precip.
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 300-600 mt versus 367 last week, old crop corn 100-500 mt versus 377 last week, new crop corn 400-800 mt versus 553 last week, old crop soybean 300-800 mt versus 570 last week and 2,000-3,100 mt versus 2,839 last week.
Pro Farmer tour participant estimated IL 2020 corn yield near 189.4 versus their estimate last year of 171.1 and USDA August guess of 207.0. Pro Farmer tour participant estimated W IA 2020 corn yields from 172.4 to 184.7 versus their estimate last year of 184.9 to 192.7 and USDA August guess of 191.0.Both states had soybean pod count above last year and 3 year average. Tour participants noted soybeans will need a rain to achieve forecasted yields.
Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 6,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 116,000 Corn; net long 61,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 63,000 Soyoil.
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