Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 1 cent, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 25 cents; HRW up 21; HRS up 15; Corn is up 11 cents; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil down 65 points. Crushing margins are up 2 cents at $1.10; Oil share is unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 80 yuan in soybeans, up 10 in Corn, up 9 in Soymeal, down 152 in Soyoil, and down 176 in Palm Oil.
U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has moderate rainfall for the region the middle of next week with temps running below average. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period has rainfall chances for the eastern sections of KS, OK, and TX the middle of the coming week. Temps will swing from above average to below over the 10 day period.
South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period calls for widespread rainfall in their growing areas. The Argentine growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period has moderate rainfall over 90% of their growing regions.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 14,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 23,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; bought 7,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 46,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 202,000 Corn; net long 251,000 Soybeans; net long 91,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 80,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,300; Corn up 20,300; Soybeans up 535 contracts; Soymeal down 2,700 lots, and; Soyoil up 350.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 361; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Pakistan bought 340,000t optional-origin wheat—-S. Korea bought 65,000t U.S. feed wheat, looking for 65,000t U.S. corn—
- U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 161.491 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
- U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.433 BILLION LBS – NOPA
- U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYMEAL EXPORTS 991,134 TONS – NOPA
The United States generated fewer renewable fuel blending credits in September than in August, the Environmental Protection Agency said; about 1.11 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in September, down from 1.12 billion in August. About 437 million biodiesel (D4) blending credits were generated last month, up from 387 million the month prior.
Saskatchewan crop report: Farmers throughout the province are wrapping up combining, with 99 per cent of the crop now in the bin. This is up from 96 per cent last week and remains well ahead of the five-year (2015-2019) average of 83 per cent for this time of year.
China’s agriculture ministry said on Thursday that the country’s corn planting acreage had remained “basically stable” this year and annual output was set to increase despite the northeastern cornbelt being hit by three typhoons in recent weeks; The ministry’s comments, attributed to an unnamed official, came after Chinese corn futures hit a record high of 2,595 yuan ($385.75) a ton on Wednesday as investors bet that crop damage and a recent selldown of state reserves could leave the market short
The Brazilian government is set to discuss on Friday a proposal that would temporarily eliminate tariffs on corn and soy imports from countries outside the Mercosur trade block
The size of the cattle herd in Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, grew for the first time in three years in 2019, according to data released on Thursday
Argentina’s 2020/21 wheat crop is estimated at 17 million tonnes, the Rosario grains exchange said on Thursday, citing dryness and frosts as it reasons for cutting its previous 18 million tonne estimate.
French farmers had sown 12% of the expected area for next year’s soft wheat harvest as of Oct. 12, farm office FranceAgriMer said; that compared with 6% a week earlier and 16% in the corresponding week last year
—Maize harvesting was 64% complete by Oct. 12, compared with 49% a week earlier and 26% last year.
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