Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 1 cents and near 13.81. SX is up 7 cents and near 12.03. SMK is near 423.0. BOK is near 46.96. CK is up 6 cents and near 5.47. WK is up 1 cent and near 6.56. KWK is up 3 cents and near 6.41.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 14 cents; HRW up 16; HRS up 13; Corn was up 8 cents; Soybeans up 11 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 150 points. Crushing margins were unch at $0.64 (July); Oil share up 1% at 35%. Nearby soybean futures seeing upside resistance due to approaching Brazil soybean harvest and talk of declining weekly US soybean exports.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 1 yuan in soybeans, down 3 in Corn, up 31 in Soymeal, up 158 in Soyoil, and up 124 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 18 ringgit at 3,540 (basis May) having followed rival vegoils and on talk of supply tightness.
Argentina will be very warm to hot and experience net drying conditions in many areas during the coming ten days after a few early week thunderstorms. Brazil’s bottom line is mostly good for southern Brazil with infrequent rainfall occurring in the next ten days to support the maturation and harvest of soybeans as well as the planting of Safrinha crops. Northern Brazil will continue fighting a wetter bias that will result in slow soybean harvest and Safrinha planting rates and could raise a little crop quality issue in a few areas.
Some feel given tight US 2020/21 corn and soybean balance sheets, US famers may need to plant more than the 217.0 million acres of corn, soybean , wheat and cotton forecast at the Forum. Most analyst est US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,100 mil bu vs USDA 1,502 and soybean near 100 versus USDA 120. Key in both cases is final exports. Analyst look for US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,502. Key is the actual 2020/21 carryin.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 7,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 16,000 contracts of Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 344,000 Corn; net long 154,000 Soybeans; net long 66,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 112,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,400 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,300; Corn up 14,500; Soybeans down 15,600 contracts; Soymeal down 2,600 lots, and; Soyoil down 14,800.
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