Written Commentary
Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cents and near 10.19. SMZ is near 351.0. BOZ is near 31.70. CZ is unchanged and near 3.80. WZ is up 8 cents and near 5.82. KWZ is up 9 cents and near 5.18. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. POTUS is still under treatment for Covid. US Congress still has no new stimulus aid.
Chinese Ag futures are closed for a week long holiday (Oct 1st thru 8th). Malaysian palm oil prices were down 14 ringgit at 2,694 (basis December) at midsession following weaker soyoil prices but, supported by a better crude oil market.
USDA crop report oct 9. 2 private groups crop estimates slightly down from their previous guess and USDA.
Brazil could see rains after Oct 9. Russia still dry. US rains is east. Warmer temp west ½ of US
Some estimate China will take 500 mil bu (12.7 mmt) US corn vs 80 mil bu last year. Some estimate China will take 1,323 mil bu (36.0 mmt) US soybeans vs 582 mil bu last year.
Soymeal has rallied on talk of lower South America crops and crush. Soyoil dropped on lower palmoil prices.
Wheat rallied on dry Russia weather. Some feel cash sales should be made near 5.90 WZ and 5.40 KWZ.
The US Midwest 6 to 10 day forecast has dry weather continuing through the upcoming weekend with a front moving in next Monday bringing light to moderate rainfall with 90% coverage for the region. Temps run below average for the next couple of days moving up to average by the end of the week and above average the first half of next week. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period has a front bringing light to moderate rainfall to the eastern sections of the region at the start of next week. Temps run above average over the next 10 days.
The Brazilian growing regions has little rainfall for most areas except for central/east (light amounts for northern Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and southern Parana) over the next 10 day period. Rains do look to develop north of Parana bringing moderate amounts from the weekend into early next week. The Argentine growing regions has mostly dry weather over the next 10 days.
Europe will continue to experience waves of rain over the next two weeks, but the intensity in western areas will be much less than that of this past weekend
Russia’s Southern Region is still advertised to be mostly dry for the next ten days, but some showers will be possible October 15-22. Ukraine and portions of southeastern Europe will receive waves of rain later this week through most of next week.
USDA is expected to keep US corn and soybean crop ratings near last weeks levels. US corn harvest 18-21 percent done, soybean 35-38 percent. Early farmer yields near expectations or may be a little above. Farmer selling soybeans but not corn. US south plains still dry.
On Friday, Managed funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 Corn; net sold 3,000 Soybeans; bought 4,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 35,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 166,000 Corn; net long 256,000 Soybeans; net long 93,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 87,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
