Grains Starting Mixed
Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are mixed. SX is up 5 cents and near 10.05. SMZ is near 323.5. BOZ is near 34.42. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.68. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.44. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 4.75. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is marginally higher.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 70 yuan in soybeans, down 10 in Corn, up 7 in Soymeal, up 76 in Soyoil, and up 106 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 26 ringgit at 2,918 (basis November) at midsession looking for higher export forecasts for September.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has dry weather through the weekend before a front moves in bringing light to moderate rainfall mainly for the middle/northern sections of the region early next week. Temps are seen running below average. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average rainfall and average to above average temps.
Soybean futures continue to trend higher led by daily China buying US soybeans. Including unknown, there is 25 mt US soybean sold to China or 3 months’ worth of demand. Futures are extremely overbought. USDA rated US soybean crop near 63 pct good/ex. 13 pct of the crop states are rated below trend yield, 16 pct trend and 65 pct above trend. Private guesses for US corn yield range from 51.0 to 52.5 versus USDA 51.9.
Corn futures are up against key resistance. US farmer continues to be a reluctant seller of cash corn. Most want to see their harvest yield before selling. Market could see a higher percent of spot selling from the field than normal. USDA rated US corn crop near 62 pct good/ex. 25 pct of the crop states are rated below trend yield, 24 pct trend and 42 pct above trend. 5 pct of the crop is harvested. Private guesses for US corn yield range from 176.0 to 179.5 versus USDA 178.5.
Wheat futures remain near season highs supported by higher Russia wheat prices and lack of Russian farmer selling. Still, US wheat export prices are a premium to Black Sea. USDA estimated US 2021 winter wheat seeding near 10 pc done. Spring wheat harvest is near 92 pct done. Dry weather in Russia, Europe, Argentina and now parts of Australia helps futures.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 1,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 58,000 Corn; net long 199,000 Soybeans; net long 40,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 93,000 Soyoil.
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