Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 7 cents and near 14.05. SMK is near 397.8. BOK is near 55.50. CK is down 5 cents and near 5.33. WK is down 2 cents and near 6.36. KWK is down 4 cents and near 5.98. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 15 cents; HRW down 23; HRS down 10; Corn was down 6 cents; Soybeans down 11 cents; Soymeal down $16.00, and; Soyoil up 305 points. Crushing margins were up 10 cents at $0.70 (July); Oil share up 3% at 40%.
The bottom line for the United States remains one of improved soil moisture in many key winter crop areas in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado that were very short of moisture prior to the weekend. Good planting progress occurred in the southern states for early season corn, rice and sorghum (Texas mostly). Dryness worries remain in the northern Plains, southwestern Plains and far south Texas where more rain must fall soon.
NOPA members were estimated to have crushed 168.6 million bushels of soybeans during February. A month ago, NOPA reported a crush of 184.6 million bushels. In February 2020, the NOPA crush was 166.2 million bushels, the biggest February crush on record.
USDA March 31 acreage and March 1 stocks report could be key for prices. Trade is looking for 93.0 million 2021 corn acres vs 90.8 ly, soybean acres near 90.0 vs 83.1 ly and all wheat 45.0 vs 44.3 ly.
March 1 corn stocks near 7,800 mil bub vs 7,951 ly and soybean 1,500 vs 2.255 ly. Precent stocks on farm vs off farm also key to if spreads or basis will need to be strong to move grain into the pipeline.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 109 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, down 13 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 4 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 21 ringgit at 4,146 (basis May) at midsession lifted by a jump in crude, rival vegoil prices.
Argentina will begin to see some relief with rain early this week and follow up rain will occur during the weekend followed by milder temperatures to help conserve soil moisture. Brazil remains mostly good for late season crops that are in the ground. a frustratingly slow field progress will continue in unharvested soybean and unplanted corn progress.
Brazil Safrinha corn crop is 77% planted, up 20% on the week vs 89% a year ago. Argentina corn is 4% harvested vs 8% a year ago. Corn yield projections across Argentina look better than expected. Brazilian soybeans are 45% harvested, up 12% on the week vs 58% a year ago. It is the Argentina soybean crop that has brought on the biggest yield worries. Double cropped beans in southern and central provinces are in poor shape.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 2,000 Corn; even Soybeans; sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 351,000 Corn; net long 150,000 Soybeans; net long 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 109,000 Soyoil.
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