Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 20 cents and near 16.90. SX is near 14.81. SMK is near 480.5. BOK is near 75.20. CK is up 8 cents and near 7.41. CZ is near 6.42. WK is down 13 cents and near 11.89. Overnight low was 11.09. KWK is up 9 cents and near 11.22. Overnight low was 10.58. MWK is up 20 cents and near 11.04. Overnight low was 10.50.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Most private analyst trashed USDA March corn, wheat and soybean numbers. There was talk USDA may wait until May when they estimate World 2022/23 supply and demand to make needed changes to World trade matrix do to Ukraine War and fear bullish numbers would fuel food inflation fears.
For the third straight month USDA lower South America soybean crop. Total drop since Dec is 1,000 mil bu but USDA has increased US exports only 40 mil bu? US soybean carryout down only 55 mil bu? Some feel USDA could still be 350 mil bu too high in South America production. USDA increased US soyoil exports 200 mil lbs but lowered biofuel 200 mil lbs. USDA failed to address fact Ukraine may not ship sunoil this year.
USDA did increase US corn exports 75 mil bu. The problem is that US census corn exports suggest exports could be up 300 mil bu with US summer export program forecasted to be record high. USDA is 350 mil bu too high in Ukraine corn exports and 300 mil bu too high in South America corn exports. Ukraine farm managers are questioning if they can get 2022 crops planted with new worries about where their workers are.
Most say that USDA World wheat numbers were a joke. EU wheat exports at 37.5 mmt may be 6 mmt to high. Russia 32 mmt exports suggest they need to export 8 mmt Feb-June. Ukraine 20 mmt is down 4 mmt but suggest they will need to export 3 mmt Mar-June which may not happen. Total EU and Black Sea wheat exports could be down 15 mmt(550 mil bu) from USDA numbers. Australia 2 mmt increase in exports may not be logistically possible.
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