Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 2 cents and near 14.82. SMH is near 458.5. BOH is near 61.73. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.49. WH is up 2 cents and near 7.51. KWH is up 1 cent and near 8.52. MWH is up 2 cents and near 9.20. US stocks are lower after Fed Chairman hawkish remarks. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. US Keystone pipeline resumed and send 600,000 barrels of Crude per day to US from Canada. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean and soymeal futures are slightly higher. Soyoil is slightly lower. Trade remains choppy on reduced holiday volume. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were lower. China factory output and retail sales were lower. US November NOPA soybean crush is expected to show higher crush vs last year and lower soyoil stocks. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 1,500-2,000 mt vs 1,716 ly. Argentina and south Brazil remain dry. China Oct-Dec soybean imports are est at 25 mmt and near the record 26 mmt. China Nov soybean crush rate was down 10 pct vs ly and vs USDA forecast od annual rate up 10 pct.
Corn futures still trying to find value given bearish weekly ethanol data and potential bearish weekly YS corn export sales data vs dry Argentina weather. US domestic logistics could be slowed by cold temps. Barge freight is near 950 pct of tariff vs 675 last year and 5 year average of 420. March quotes are lower pricing in spring rains. Nearby futures may be supported by tight US old crop supply. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 600-900 mt vs 691 last week. Total commit is near 29.0 mmt vs 36.6 ly. USDA goal is 52.7 vs 62.7 ly. Global trade is 181.6 mmt vs 202.5 ly.
Wheat futures are slightly higher. Argentina lowered their estimate of the wheat crop near half of last year. India wheat stocks are lower than last year. Black Sea wheat exports are slowed due to weather and logistics. Some are adding a little weather premium with cold temps forecasted for much of US Midwest and plains. Some feel winterkill may be limited since growing point may still be below ground. Still forecast remains dry for US south plains Weekly US wheat export sales are estimates at 150-350 mt vs 189 last week.
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