Ag Market View for Nov 11
Soybeans and soyoil traded higher. Soymeal, corn and wheat traded lower. US stocks were mixed. Crude was mixed. US Dollar was higher. Gold was lower.
Soybeans traded higher. Funds continued to add the soybean longs after USDA dropped US 2020 supply more than expected. Talk that China was asking for US Jan-Feb soybean prices was also supportive. Soyoil rallied on talk of higher China demand, lower palmoil supplies and lower World sunoil supplies. A continued dry south Brazil and east Argentina weather outlook also supports prices. China soybean imports at 100 mmt versus 98.5 last year. World Jan-Oct soybean exports were near 139.7 mmt versus 124.3 last year. US was 41.9 versus 39.8 and Brazil was 81.4 versus 65.8. October US exports increased to 10.8 versus 5.9 last year. Brazil Oct exports dropped to 2.5 versus 5.1 last year. China was the biggest Jan-Oct buyer at 86.6 mmt versus 75.5 last year. Europe was next at 12.5 mmt versus 10.7 last year. Argentina imported 5.1 mmt versus 3.8 last year. Drop in global soybean supplies should continue to push soybean prices higher.
Corn futures ended lower. After Tuesdays USDA rally corn futures had become overbought. Funds were net buyers of 57,000 corn contracts and are now long 364,000 corn contracts. There were no new US corn export sales announced. Weekly ethanol data was delayed until tomorrow. Weekly US export sales report will also be delayed until Friday. US cif corn basis has dropped on increase farmer selling. Most look for a rebound in the basis once demand increases. Overnight, Dalian corn futures traded higher. China corn crop is estimated near 260 mmt, domestic use at 282 and imports near 13. Some feel their imports could be closer to 22-25. US corn crop is 368 with total domestic use near 309. China rice crop is estimated near 147 mmt with domestic use near 146 mmt and end stocks near 116. Global Rice stocks are near 179 mmt. US 2020/21 corn supply is near 16,527 mil bu versus 16,742 estimated in Oct and 15,883 last year. Total demand is estimated near 14,825 with exports near 2,650 versus 13,887 and 1,778 last year. This leaves a carryout near 1,702 versus 1,995 last year. USDA est average farm prices near 4.00 versus 3.56 last year. Most still look for futures to test 4.50.
Wheat futures traded lower. Looks like some profit taking after this week’s gains. WZ tested 6.13. Is now back below 6.00. Support is 5.91. Russia’s grain export quota is seen at 15 mmt for Feb 15 to June 30 next year. This was higher than expected and suggested to the market that Russia could export USDA guess of 39.5 mmt. The world’s largest wheat exporter has used quotas as a tool to defend its domestic market having limited grain exports to 7 mmt from last April to the end of June. Last year, Russia total wheat exports were 34.4. USDA continues to estimate World 2020/21 wheat end stocks near a record 320.4 mmt versus 300.7 last year. World domestic use is still estimated near 752 mmt versus 748 last year. US south plains, Black Sea and Argentina weather is forecasted to remain dry. Russia crop is estimated near 83.5 mmt with domestic demand near 41.0 and exports near 39.5. EU crop is estimated near 136.5 mmt versus 155.0 last year. Domestic use is estimated near 118.0 versus 122.5 last year. Some feel fact USDA continues to estimate World wheat Feeding near 137.1 mmt versus 139.0 last year and 139.0 in 2018/19 suggest this number could increase especially in Europe and Black Sea. This should support prices.
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