Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Still no clear winner yet in US POTUS election. Grains are mixed. SF is up 1 cent and near 10.65. SMZ is near 380.9. BOZ is near 33.68. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.00. WZ is down 3 cents and near 6.04. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 5.56. US stocks are mixed. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. US Dollar is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 36 yuan in soybeans, down 4 in Corn, up 21 in Soymeal, up 118 in Soyoil, and up 116 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 60 ringgit at 3,130 (basis January) at midsession, near a 10 month high on a tight stock outlook.
Lower than expected private estimate of US 2020 corn and soybean crop versus USDA October guess offers support. This and talk that final US corn and soybean exports could be higher than USDA last guess could also help push corn and soybean futures higher. Talk of tight old crop Brazil and Argentina soybean supply helps support soymeal futures. World vegoil prices are higher led by palmoil.
USDA November 10 US/World supply and demand report could help clarify US/World 2020/21 supply versus demand situation. Still fact USDA is slow playing drop in production and potential increase in US export demand continue to reduce USDA WOB credibility. Still algorithm machines trade their numbers. Managed funds continue to be large net longs in grains despite concern about lower food and fuel demand due to Covid. Many feel lower World supplies could still push corn and soybean futures higher.
World weather is also less than ideal. Talk of drier Russia, US south plains, south Brazil and Argentina weather could stress winter crop there. La Nina could also keep US south plains and South America weather drier than normal. Hurricane Eta still hitting central America. Could spin early next week toward Cuba and Florida.
China has not bought US soybean for 19 days. Large imported supplies to date could be slowing new buying. Late planted Brazil 2021 soybean crop could eventually add to US soybean export demand. There is even talk of US soybeans being loaded to Brazil. USDA China Ag attaché lowered his estimate of China imports to 95 mmt. Some feel if true this could hurt new crop Brazil demand.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net even in SRW Wheat; bought 9,000 Corn; bought 10,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 225,000 Corn; net long 215,000 Soybeans; net long 80,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 90,000 Soyoil.
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