Written Commentary
GOLD & SILVER
While the gold market did not make a fresh higher high for the move overnight, prices have managed to consolidate above $1,750 and sit just under this week’s highs. Similarly, the silver market has extended a sideways consolidation around $19.00 and forged a quasi-side double low starting at $18.65. Surprisingly, gold mining shares jumped yesterday along with gold futures prices, which suggest investor sentiment toward gold is not completely negative.
PALLADIUM PLATINUM
Clearly the palladium market fully discounted a Russian published prediction of a palladium shortage of 80,000 to 100,000 ounces by the end of this year, as the market was unable to hold in positive ground yesterday. According to an independent Russian analyst, demand for palladium is likely to decline in the 2nd half, but lost production is likely to reduce supply by a greater magnitude. The Russian analyst also predicted the 2023 global palladium market deficit to expand to 130,000 to 150,000 ounces. While the platinum market has not been confronted with specific forecasts of slumping global auto sales, the deterioration in global economic sentiment suggests soft vehicle sales forecasts are likely to be forthcoming.
COPPER
Surprisingly, the September copper contract broke out to the highest level since June 30th yesterday and managed that strength in the face of noted losses in equities, a temporary upside breakout in US treasury yields and in the face of a fresh contract high in the US dollar. Surprisingly, the copper market was not knocked back in the face of bearish Goldman Sachs 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month price forecasts.
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