Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. USDA report day. SH is up 12 cents and near 15.27. SMH is near 486.6. BOH is near 60.95. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.76. WH is up 7 cents and near 7.56. KWH is up 7 cents and near 8.93. MWH is up 7 cents and near 9.24. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar are higher. Coffee is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Drier Argentina and S Brazil and may be helping soybean futures. China bought 6 Brazil soybean cargoes for Mar-May. Some feel China has covered 90 pct of March soybean needs, 70-80 pct April and 60-65 pct May. Brazil soybean export basis is lower on increase farmer selling. Domestic China daily soymeal trade increased to 1.0 mmt. Despite talk of lower US soybean exports vs latest USDA estimate, USDA may decide to keep US exports unchanged today due to fact US soybean export commit is running 5 pct higher than last year. Trade will be watching today if USDA lowers Argentina soybean crop.
Corn futures are higher. Could be some buying in front of today’s USDA report. One crop watcher estimates Argentina corn crop at 44.0 mmt vs USDA 52.0. One analyst group estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,183 mil bu due to higher exports. US domestic basis is trending lower. Trade will be watching US weekly ethanol data and Thursday export sales. Brazil and Argentina is out of the export market and there is increase concern over Ukraine supply. Matif corn is near 4 week high on tight corn supplies.
Wheat futures are higher. Will USDA increase Russia crop and exports? US south Plains is dry. US HRW stocks are down 37 pct vs ly. KWH is near 9.00 and highest in 2023. KWH is +137 vs WH and highest since 2014. SE plains, E Midwest and Lakes are seeing rains with above normal temps. US HRW export prices are the most expensive wheat in World. CCC is tendering for Ethiopia. USDA should increase Australia crop today.
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