Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch near $69. Gold and Copper are lower. US Fed lowered rates 25 basis points but said there will be only 2 cuts in 2025. US stocks fell sharply on the news. US stocks are higher overnight.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.52. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Rains are forecast for most of Brazil and Argentina. Confidence in a record 2025 South America soybean crop is growing with rains in Argentina. World vegoil prices continue in retreat on demand worries. US and Brazil are lowering soybean export prices to compete for nearby China demand. China Sino Grain were net buyers of Brazil Feb-Apr soybean cargoes. USDA announced 120 mt US soymeal were sold to Colombia. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 825-2,000 mt vs 1,173 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.36. Dalian corn futures were lower. China Sino Grain announced restrictions on any new auctions of imported corn. China Nov corn imports were only 300 mt. This suggest annual imports below 10 mmt. Increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality also offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance. USDA announced 135 mt US corn to Colombia. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,600 mt vs 946 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct vs last week and 3 pct vs ly. Stocks were down 1 pct vs ly. Margins remain negative.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.32. KWH is near 5.43. MWH is near 5.88. KWH traded below 4.50 support. A strong US Dollar, Russia suspending sales to Syria, and S Hemisphere arrivals offers resistance. But 2025 exports from the EU/Russia could be 15 mmt below last year, and Indian domestic prices hit new highs. Funds have now covered 70,000 Matif shorts. Russia wheat futures hit 3 month low. China Nov wheat imports were only 70 mt and down 89 pct vs ly. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 225-550 mt vs 290 last week.
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