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Lower Metals Outlook


The gold market has started off on a slightly weaker footing perhaps because of  a bounce in the dollar and perhaps because the ECB failed to take additional stimulative action to support their economy. Perhaps the gold market was also pressured slightly as a result of less global economic anxiety following some favorable Chinese economic data. The gold market should be supported as a result of 14th straight daily increase in gold ETF holdings with a purchase yesterday of 55,654 ounces bringing the net global holdings up to 104 million ounces. While the September silver contract has fallen back from a new high for the year early today, the market did make a new high for the move and the charts remain very bullish. Overnight silver ETF’s increased their holdings by 334,145 ounces bringing the total global holdings up to 820,390,000 ounces.


While the palladium chart remains minimally supportive we are unimpressed with the bull case and would suggest rallies will continue to be very difficult to sustain. However, seeing silver gain traction in sync with the PGM markets would seem to suggest the PGM markets saw the vaccine news as a potential savior of physical demand for non-gold precious metals. he platinum charts continue to be more negative than positive with a general prevailing pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Other than some recent reports of softer South African platinum production, and some minor infection inspired cutbacks of mining activity, the fundamental case for platinum is simply uninteresting unless there is definitive reason to think a vaccine is about to be revealed.


Despite seeing a generally positive flow of Chinese economic data overnight, another noted decline in LME copper warehouse stocks and suggestions that the copper/oil ratio is pointing to a commodity bull market ahead, copper has extended its corrective track. In fact the charts in copper have been damaged further and the bear camp has been partially emboldened by chatter that demand for LME copper in some official exchange warehouses has shown some softening of interest this week.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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