Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 8 cents and near 12.87. SMH is near 418.4. BOH is near 41.43 CH is down 2 cents and near 4.63. WH is down 3 cents and near 6.15. KWH is down 2 cents and near 5.82. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Copper is above 350. Gold still below 1,900.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 64 yuan in soybeans, up 16 in Corn, up 54 in Soymeal, up 92 in Soyoil, and up 90 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 35 ringgit at 3,585 (basis March) on export expectations.
Brazil, conditions will be favorable for crops in much of the nation’s production region. Southern areas could remain dry. In Argentina, there will continue to be a struggle for any widespread moisture.
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat are trading lower after Argentina oilseed workers agreed to a nee contract. The loading of 162 ships has been delayed in Argentine agro-industrial ports, bogging down $1.458 billion in exports due to the work stoppage. Soy crushing and other farm industry activities have been put on hold since the workers walked off the job on Dec. 9. Argentina labor agreement will help normalize exports as quickly as possible and reactivate much-needed foreign currency inflows. 77 pct of Argentina soybean crop is planted. 61 pct of the corn crop is planted vs 80 average.
Talk of additional demand for US corn and soybean exports and that S Brazil and Argentina 2 week weather forecast calls for below normal rains helped push soybean and corn futures to new highs and above initial resistance. SH was unable to trade over 13.00. CH found resistance near 4.65, SMH 425, BOH 42 and WH 6.20-6.30. Most fee prices in Jan could trade above resistance and into USDA Jan 12 report. US fob corn prices are near $228 vs Argentina $242. Brazil $252 and Ukraine $235.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 25,000 Corn; 20,000 Soybeans; 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 5,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 350,000 Corn; net long 219,000 Soybeans; net long 95,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 116,000 Soyoil.
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