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Key Reversal Ahead in Cotton


While cocoa saw coiling price action last week, this resulted in the market starting this week’s action only 43 points away from climbing above Monday’s multi-year high. Although it may continue to have a bumpy ride due to the ebb and flow of global risk sentiment, cocoa’s bullish supply/demand outlook can help the market reach new high ground over the next few weeks.


The market continues to see a coiling pattern, with higher peaks and higher valleys. It has recovered more than 27 cents from early August and may be setting up for a continued uptrend. For the week, December coffee finished with a loss of 2.70 cents (down 1.3%) which broke a 2-week winning streak.


December cotton closed lower Friday after trading to yet another contract high and follow through selling this morning helps to confirm the peak. The key reversal is a technical sign of a potential near-term top. The buying pushed the market up to the highest level since July 2011. The market peaked and sold off about a half-hour after the release of the disappointing US September jobs data.


Sugar prices have been in a coiling price pattern for over a month, but they continue to hold their ground above the mid-September lows. With a bullish supply outlook continuing to provide support, sugar could build on last week’s strength.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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