Written Commentary
Overnight trade has SRW unchanged, HRW down 1 cent; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil down 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures were closed for holiday.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 49 ringgit at 2,387 (basis September) at midsession as June exports slow, weaker crude oil.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Things will be mainly dry across the Midwest region until rains arrive in the west early Friday and work into the rest of the region later Friday into Saturday; totals will be light to moderate with good coverage.
Last night’s GFS model run was similar to the midday GFS model in showing a general swath of significant rainfall from North Dakota through Tennessee Monday into next Wednesday
The 6 to 10 day forecast has showers and thunderstorms firing up mostly in the northeast sections of the Midwest with moderate to good rainfall amounts
Things look to be mainly dry through Friday in the Southern Plains, then Saturday, good rains are indicated to fall in the eastern 2/3rd of KS, with generally light amounts in the rest of the region
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Southern Plains has moderate rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday in the northeast 1/3rd to ½ of KS, with little in the way of rains elsewhere
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 5,000 Corn; sold 5,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 291,000 Corn; net long 24,000 Soybeans; net short 51,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 8,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,400; Corn up 6,900; Soybeans down 22,500 contracts; Soymeal up 1,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 6,000.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—HOGS AND PIGS REPORT—
Tender Activity—Japan bought 101,243t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended June 19th averaged 893,000 barrels per day (up 6.2% versus a week ago, down 16.7% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 21.0 mil barrels (down 1.5% versus a week ago, down 2.5% versus last year); corn use for the week was 91.2 mil bu (85.9 mil last week) and versus the 96.3 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
After a brief break last week, US ethanol production is back to its recent recovery trend; it’s the highest daily ethanol production has been in the US since late March, and brings ethanol production closer to its yearly normal; meanwhile, inventory of ethanol continues to shrink, the lowest level since last December; corn futures gained some traction off of the EIA’s report
Kansas wheat good quality as harvest continues; Kansas’ wheat harvest is at various states of completion; from almost finished in the southwest to barely started up north; but due to rain, wheat harvest is delayed for several days; forecasts call for scattered showers this week, but as temperatures remain high, many are hoping the crop will be dry enough for harvest.
Refiners such as HollyFrontier Corp and CVR Energy are exploring opportunities to produce renewable diesel to save money on less profitable refineries and offset compliance costs associated with U.S. blending laws; the product, however, currently only occupies a tiny corner of diesel production – and logistical hurdles are likely to limit its growth in coming years; refiners acquire used cooking oil, animal fats and soybeans from restaurants, grocers and farms to make renewable diesel, which is chemically identical to its petroleum-based peer and can be substituted in most diesel engines.
US meat giant Tyson Foods has confirmed it is to permanently close a pork plant in Columbia, South Carolina; some 150 employees are impacted by the decision; the company, which has faced a number temporary closures due to Covid-19 outbreaks among its workforce, said the decision is nothing to do with the virus.
Weekly Poultry Stats
—Broiler-Type Eggs Set in the United States Up 1 Percent
—Broiler-Type Chicks Placed in the United States Down 1 Percent
U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum aimed at protecting American lobster fishermen who have found export markets drying up, a senior White House adviser said, adding that China could end up facing new tariffs; if those purchase commitments are not met, the United States Trade Representative has been directed to use his discretion to impose … reciprocal tariffs on the China seafood industry.
Argentina is examining alternatives to the planned expropriation of financially ailing soymeal exporter Vicentin, including a possible private-public partnership, the Production Minister said; soy farmers owed money by Vicentin could end up as shareholders in the once-mighty company, which went broke after going on a credit-fueled expansion last year.
Most Ukrainian spring crops are in good or satisfactory condition thanks to return of warm weather in most of the country, weather forecasters said; APK-Inform agriculture consultancy quoted forecasters’ report as saying that only limited area in southern part of the country were still suffering from drought while other part of Ukraine has sufficient moisture content in the soil.
Ukraine’s economy ministry has proposed setting the limit for wheat exports at 17.2 million tons for the 2020-21 season which starts on July 1; it revised down its 2020 wheat harvest forecast to 26.5 million tons from a previous 26.8 million tons, and saw the corn harvest forecast at 37-38 million tons; its wheat and corn export forecasts were unchanged.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 25 rose 37.2 percent to 1,390,860 tons from 1,014,000 tons shipped during May 1 – 25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
—Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 25 rose 35.5 percent to 1,401,996 tons from 1,034,829 tons shipped during May 1 – 25, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said
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