Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Nat Gas is higher. Early Dec US temps look colder. Gold is higher. Into weekend, trade is adding risk to Crude and Gold.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.83. Dalian soybean and soymeal, palmoiil and soyoil were lower. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. Argentina soybean plantings are near 36 pct. Soybean bears are still looking for lower soybean futures due to record high South America supplies and lower China demand. SF-SH spread narrowed to -8 while SMZ-SMH remains wide at -6.00. US soybean export commit is up 9 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. USDA announced 198 mt soybeans to China, 135 mt to unknown and 133 mt soymeal to Philippines. World vegoil markets are lower. Most selling linked to potential US tariffs and worries about future biofuel demand. IGC dropped World soybean crop 2 mmt to 419 but still higher than ly 396.
CORN
CH is near 4.37. CZ-CH spread narrowed into -9. Dalian corn futures were higher and rangebound. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. Argentina corn plantings are 39 pct. Some feel higher South America corn crop and large spec long offers resistance. Brazil and China signed to trade deal. Brazil and Ukraine prices are lower. US corn export commit is up 39 pct vs ly and USDA up 1. Front loaded sales especially to Mexico may be causing logistic concerns. IGC raised World corn crop 1 mmt. Higher African crop offset lower US.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.67. KWH is near 5.66. MWH is near 6.03. WZ-WH spread is back to -21 carry. WH has failed to push above 20 DMA. US Dolar is sharply higher. Higher south hemisphere supply is finding demand which is firming prices. South hemisphere export window is normally Dec-Jan. US wheat export commit is up 23 pct vs ly, vs 35 last week and USDA up 17. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. IGC lowered World wheat crop 2 mmt due to lower EU crop.
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