Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 12 cents and near 10.41. SMZ is near 338.2. BOZ is near 35.35. CZ is up 2 cents and near 3.77. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.58. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.91. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. There is 34 business days until US elections. POTUS announced a new round of pandemic assistance to farmers of about $13 billion.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 16 cents; HRW up 20; HRS up 11; Corn is up 8 cents; Soybeans up 44; Soymeal up $14.00, and; Soyoil up 165 points. Crushing margins are up 4 cents at $0.92; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 24 yuan in soybeans, up 29 in Corn, up 43 in Soymeal, up 146 in Soyoil, and up 124 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 86 ringgit at 3,061 (basis December) at midsession following rival vegoils and set for their biggest weekly jump in five years.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is for normal to above temps and dry weather. US Midwest 8-14 day forecast is for normal to above temps and dry weather.
For the week ended September 10th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 7% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 4% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year, Corn sales are running 136% ahead of a year ago, shipments 32% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 32% increase, Soybean sales are running 189% ahead of a year ago, shipments 102% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 27% increase on the year, Soymeal sales down 1% on the year, shipments up 3% with a 3% increase forecast and Soyoil sales 39% ahead of a year ago, shipments 49% ahead with a 42% increase forecasted
China buying US soybean continues to support a contra seasonal rally in soybeans and soymeal. Dalian futures are higher especial vegoil. Market will need to see a stop in China buying US to slow the uptrend.
Corn futures are supported by lack of US farmer selling and higher Black Sea prices. Concern about Romania stopping exports and dry weather in the Black Sea offers support. Wheat futures also supported by dryness in the Black Sea and higher prices there.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 12,000 Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; bought 8,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 33,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 78,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 96,000 Soyoil.
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