Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 19 cents and near 16.87. SMK is near 480.5. BOK is near 74.00. CK is up 10 cents and near 7.51. WK is up 17 cents and near 10.81. KWK is up 18 cents and near 10.88. MWK is up 7 cents and near 10.67. Ukraine war continues. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Dalian soybeans, soyoil, plamoil are lower. Soymeal and corn higher.
Wheat futures added war premium overnight. Weekend south plains rains were only trace to .60 inches over 60 pct of the area. Rainfall over next 10 days will be watched with some weather watchers calling for a ridge of high pressure to build across the south plains starting in mid April. 10.50 is key May wheat futures support. Resistance is near 11.50.
Some feel that CK near 7.82 had reflected some of the talk of increase US export demand due to lack of Ukraine exports and drop in South America. USDA March 31 acreage reports could be key to spring prices. Most trade guesses are near 91.9 versus 93.4 last year. Some feel after the report, prices may need to trade higher to try to find replacement 15 mmt Ukraine corn exports and 30 mmt Ukraine 2023 exports if their crop does not get planted.
Nearby soybean futures have been range bound between 16.50 and 17.25. Last years prices at this time was near 13.96. Argentina increased their soymeal and soyoil export tax 2 pct to 33 pct. Argentina government needs money. US soybean crush rate is record high with recent board margins testing 2.23. Trade guesses for US 2022 soybean acres is 87.8 vs 87.2 last year.
US new crop barge values are record high due to forecast of record high fall soybean and corn exports. USDA estimates US 2021/22 total corn, soybean, sorghum and wheat exports at 5,700 mil bu versus 2020/21 record 6,290. Some could see final US 2021/22 exports closer to 6,110. 2021/22 Sep-Dec was 2,283 versus 2,746 in 2020/21. Some feel US 2022/23 exports could reach a record 6,485. Sep-Dec 2022 could be a record 2,831 barring any less demand or weather issues. This could support basis, spreads and nearby futures.
SK is up 19 cents and near 16.87. SMK is near 480.5. BOK is near 74.00. CK is up 10 cents and near 7.51. WK is up 17 cents and near 10.81. KWK is up 18 cents and near 10.88. MWK is up 7 cents and near 10.67. Ukraine war continues. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Dalian soybeans, soyoil, plamoil are lower. Soymeal and corn higher.
Wheat futures added war premium overnight. Weekend south plains rains were only trace to .60 inches over 60 pct of the area. Rainfall over next 10 days will be watched with some weather watchers calling for a ridge of high pressure to build across the south plains starting in mid April. 10.50 is key May wheat futures support. Resistance is near 11.50.
Some feel that CK near 7.82 had reflected some of the talk of increase US export demand due to lack of Ukraine exports and drop in South America. USDA March 31 acreage reports could be key to spring prices. Most trade guesses are near 91.9 versus 93.4 last year. Some feel after the report, prices may need to trade higher to try to find replacement 15 mmt Ukraine corn exports and 30 mmt Ukraine 2023 exports if their crop does not get planted.
Nearby soybean futures have been range bound between 16.50 and 17.25. Last years prices at this time was near 13.96. Argentina increased their soymeal and soyoil export tax 2 pct to 33 pct. Argentina government needs money. US soybean crush rate is record high with recent board margins testing 2.23. Trade guesses for US 2022 soybean acres is 87.8 vs 87.2 last year.
US new crop barge values are record high due to forecast of record high fall soybean and corn exports. USDA estimates US 2021/22 total corn, soybean, sorghum and wheat exports at 5,700 mil bu versus 2020/21 record 6,290. Some could see final US 2021/22 exports closer to 6,110. 2021/22 Sep-Dec was 2,283 versus 2,746 in 2020/21. Some feel US 2022/23 exports could reach a record 6,485. Sep-Dec 2022 could be a record 2,831 barring any less demand or weather issues. This could support basis, spreads and nearby futures.
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