MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 14 cent and near 15.70. SMH is near 448.9. BOH is near 65.28. CH is up 5 cents and near 6.25. WH is up 6 cents and near 7.69. KWH is up 8 cents and near 7.93. MWH is up 7 cents and near 9.20.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold and silver are higher. Copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
The dry areas of South America will turn drier after recent rains. Temps will be above normal. Trade is looking for USDA this week to drop SA corn crop 4 mmt from Jan and soybean 10 mmt.
Some could see final SA 2022 corn crop down another 10 mmt and soybean 14 mmt. This could add to demand for US corn, soybean and soymeal demand and push futures higher.
Most look for increase soybean volatility and trade volume as SA soybean supplies drop. China will return from holiday this week and could be buyers of US soybeans. Weekly chart suggest a test of 16.77 and 477 SMH. US soybean prices are a discount to Brazil April forward. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, soyoil are higher and trying to catch up with CBOT grains.
China could also be a buyer of US corn due to lower SA supplies. This could offset higher weekly ethanol stocks and fact last week China cancelled US corn sales. Weekly chart suggest a test of 6.80. Dalian corn futures are lower.
Wheat futures are higher. Most weather watchers look for dryness across US HRW south plains to continue trhough March. Russia continues to increase troops across Ukraine border especially north and in Belarus. This remains a potential World trade problem if Black Sea wheat, corn and sunoil exports are stopped due to a war. Weekly chart suggest KWH could test 8.50-8.80.
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