Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Happy New Year. Grain calls are mixed to higher. AI Managed funds continue to control grain price movement. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Nat Gas and Heating oil are higher on cold US temps. Gold is higher. Gold was up 27 pct in 2024. China factory data prompts some optimism. China leader also expressed optimism due to upward trajectory of their economy. New Years domestic US terrorist attack adds to markets uncertainty. US dockworkers and port employees will resume contract talks next week. Main workers concern is automation.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.10. Dalian soymeal and soyoil were higher. Palmoil was lower on talk Indonesia B40 biodiesel program was delayed. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. Argentina weather is dry. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,230 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near 4,460 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could increase to 480 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. SH resistance is near 10.19 but Argentina dryness limits new selling.
CORN
CH is near 4.58. Dalian corn futures were lower. CH could breach 4.60 due to Argentina dryness. Market will watch to see if US and Brazil farmers increase cash sales. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,105 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near USDA 15,143. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,525 mil bu vs USDA Dec est fo 1,738. CH resistance is now 4.60.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.51. KWH is near 5.59. MWH is near 5.95. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,538 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. Exports were 203 vs 155 ly. Food use 966 mil bu vs 961 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 795 mil bu. SRW 224 VS 274 ly. HRW 630 vs 508 ly. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures could be in a 5.30-5.85 range.
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