Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 13.52. Overnight low was 13.36. SMK is near 422.2. BOK is near 45.08. CK is down 2 cents and near 5.30. Overnight low was 5.23 and near key support. WK is up 2 cents and near 6.43. Overnight low was 6.37. KWK is up 2 cents and near 6.22. Grains are trying to recover from the recent steep selloff. US stocks are higher. US Dollar mixed. Crude is lower.
Chinese Ag futures on holiday from Feb. 11 to 17 (Thursday to Wednesday) for the celebration of Chinese Spring Festival. Resumes on Feb. 18 (Thursday). Malaysian palm oil prices were down 71 ringgit at 3,558 (basis April) snapping a 5 day rally ahead of tomorrow’s Lunar New Year holiday and on lower exports and higher stocks.
Conditions across much of Brazil’s key production region will continue to be favorable. Net drying is expected through next Wednesday from La Pampa into Santa Fe, Argentina. Last evening’s GFS model run continued to show greater rainfall for Argentina in the second week of the outlook compared to the first week.
Trade awaits CONAB estimate of 2021 crops. Their last soybean estimate was 133.7 mmt and corn 102.3 of which 23.9 first crop. 76.8 second crop and 1.6 third crop. Some feel part of Wednesday selloff was talk that CONAB was going to increase the soybean crop. Argentina has decided not to have and export tax. Argentina forecast is dry. There is now 13 mmt of soybean vessels waiting to load in Brazil with only 500 mt loaded so far in Feb.
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-450 mt, corn 800-1,400 mt, old crop soybean 300-750 mt and new crop soybeans 50-300 mt.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 13,000 SRW Wheat; sold 55,000 Corn; net sold 30,000 Soybeans; sold 12,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 317,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 120,000 Soyoil.
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