Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 4 cents and near 15.27. SMH is near 492.2. BOH is near 59.39. CH is near down 2 cents and 6.74. WH is unch and near 7.57. KWH is unch and near 8.73. MWH is down 2 cents and near 9.19. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is marginally higher. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Copper and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are lower. Trade estimates Brazil soybean crop at 153.2 vs USDA 153.0 and Argentina soybean crop at 42.0 mmt vs USDA 45.5. Trade also estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 211 mil bu vs USDA 210. US north plains, C IL, MO, OK and W TX are dry. Rains have fallen on Delta and SE. Argentina and south Brazil forecast is dry. Will China buy US soybeans?
Corn futures are lower. Lower Crude and higher US Dollar offers resistance. Some veteran corn spread traders feel CU-CZ spread is to inverted and could eventually trade to a carry. Still algorithm machine do not trade fundamentals until there is evidence that current tight supply is replaced by large 2023 supplies vs demand. Trade estimates Brazil corn crop at 125.2 vs USDA 125.0 and Argentina corn crop at 48.5 mmt vs USDA 52.0. Trade also estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,273 mil bu vs USDA 1,242.
Wheat futures are mixed. Trade will watch north hemisphere weather and crop sizes. Increase tension between west and Russia over Ukraine could keep wheat traded choppy and volatile. Russia dominance in World wheat trade continues to offer resistance to US and Matif wheat futures. Trade estimates US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 576 mil bu vs USDA 567. USDA still est Russia wheat crop at 92.0 mmt vx 75.1 ly and most private estimates at 104.0. Will USDA increase Russia crop and exports?
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