Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 14 cents and near 17.10. SX is near 15.07. SMK is near 481.3. BOK is near 75.36. CK is up 3 cents and near 7.56. CZ is near 6.72. WK is up 19 cents and near 11.37. KWK is up 16 cents and near 11.33. MWK is up15 cents and near 11.11.
Ukraine war continues. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. UK inflation is helping commodities. US Fed Chairman talking about another 50 basis increase in US rates. Dalian soybeans, soyoil, and RSO are lower. Palmoil, soymeal and corn are higher.
Biden in Europe with NATO allies to talk about Russia sanctions and Ukraine aid.
Brazil weather is helping soybean harvest. Harvest is now 70 pct done. China soybean crushers need 5-6 mmt April-May soybeans, 28-30 mmt June-Sep. This suggest China will need 14-15 mmt Aug-Sep with Brazil short supply. USDA carryout 285? USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with US soybean acres near 88.6 stocks 1,940.
For the 4th straight day Matif rapeseed futures made new all time highs. Canada $1,165.
Improved Brazil rains helping 2nd corn crop. July Brazil corn +85CN vs US +150 CN.Matif corn futures higher. Year to date imports down 2.5 mmt. Ukraine exports doubtful. Trade still waiting for China to switch 6 mmt of Ukraine corn exports to US? USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with US corn acres near 91.4 stocks 7,860.
US south plains moisture helping HRW 2022 crop especially east and south. N Africa rains helping crops there. Normal Black Sea June-Aug wheat exports near 15-20 mmt. These exports in doubt. N Africa and Middle East buyers short. EU wheat exports 31-32 mmt. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with US wheat acres near 47.4 stocks 1,025.
Combined 2022 US corn, soybean, wheat acres 227.4 vs 227.3 ly. Total 314.7 million vs 314.5 ly. Double crop soybean acres near 4.6 vs 3.7 ly. Cotton 11.8 vs 11.2 ly. Prevent plant 2.5 vs 1.8 ly. US Hay acres record low at 50.7. Sorghum, oats and barley 2022 acres 11.9 vs 12.5 ly.
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