Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 1 cents and near 14.16. SMK is near 406.3. BOK is near 54.18. CK is down 2 cents and near 5.55. WK is down 3 cents and near 6.23. KWK is down 3 cents and near 5.82. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is marginally higher. Gold is lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 11 cents; HRW down 18; HRS down 6; Corn was up 10 cents; Soybeans up 1 cent; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil down 230 points. Crushing margins were down 10 cents at $0.60 (July); Oil share down 2% at 38%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 5 yuan in soybeans, up 19 in Corn, up 35 in Soymeal, down 6 in Soyoil, and up 64 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 48 ringgit at 3,772 (basis June) at midsession supported by improving March export data.
Argentina remains favorable for late season crop development, although there will be a few pockets of moisture stress most likely in the southwest part of the nation. Concern will rise about long term soil moisture in Brazil especially if monsoonal rain withdraws normally in late April.
U.S. weather during the weekend was drier biased and that was welcome after recent moisture abundance. Drought in northern Plains continues to be a great concern. Some relief is expected later this spring, but dryness will likely return later this summer.
China brought in 1.03 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in Jan-Feb, down nearly 80% from 5.14 million tonnes a year earlie. Shipments from the United States to China in Jan-Feb totaled 11.9 million tonnes, nearly double the volume of 6.1 million tonnes in the previous year.
Russia’s March exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, down from 4.3 million tonnes in February, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said. Russian wheat export prices fell for the third consecutive week last week amid weak demand and lower prices in Chicago and Paris. Prices in Chicago are near their three-month low as improved weather across the Northern Hemisphere boosted expectations of bumper supplies.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; net 12,000 Soybeans; 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net 2,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 356,000 Corn; net long 150,000 Soybeans; net long 62,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 87,000 Soyoil.
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