Written Commentary
Grains are mixed to lower. SU is down 3 cents and near 8.89. CU is down 2 cents and near 3.14. WU is down 3 cents and near 5.17. US Dollar is lower, Crude is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 47 ringgit at 2,778 (basis October) at midsession tracking rival vegoils.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest has large differences between the models. Both the European and GFS models have rains across the region depending on location. Temps are seen below average for the rest of this week then, warming to above average by the weekend into next week. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is also mixed in the models with the European brining in ridging with hot and dry conditions. The GFS with average to below average rainfall for the region and average to a bit below average temps.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 9% ahead of a year ago (up 8% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year, Corn 16% behind a year ago (16% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans are down 5% on the year (down 4% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
The June U.S. Soybean crush was 177 mil bu versus 180 a month ago and 158 last year. Soyoil stocks were 2.270 bil lbs versus 2.446 bil last month and 2.014 bil a year ago.
USDA rated the US corn crop 72 pct good/ex unchanged from last week. 59 pct of the crop is silking versus 32 last year. One crop watchers increased his US corn yield to 180. 10 pct of the crop is rated below trend including OH, 14 pct is trend while 68 pct is above trend yield. Another group estimated the US corn yield at 182.4 or 320 mil bu above USDA. Argentina farer sis not selling corn due to less pesos and dryness.
USDA rated the US soybean crop 73 pct good/ex up 1 pct from last week. 59 pct of the crop is setting pods versus 32 last year. One crop watchers increased his US corn yield to 52. 18 pct of the crop is rated below trend including OH and MS, 17 pct is trend while 70 pct is above trend yield. Another group estimated the US soybean yield at 54.2 or 360 mil bu above USDA.
Wheat futures are under pressure due to talk of higher Russia winter wheat yield and drop in in World demand. French crop is lower and they may export less than last year, USDA estimated US winter wheat harvest 85 pct done, Spring wheat harvest 5 pct versus 10 average and rated the crop 73 pct good/ex up 3 pct from last week.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; short 151,000 Corn; net long 70,000 Soybeans; net short 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 54,000 Soyoil.
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