Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 9 cents and near 17.00. SMK is near 478.0. BOK is near 74.20. CK is down 2 cents and near 7.54. WK is up 32 cents and near 11.52. KWK is up 30 cents and near 11.43. MWK is up 20 cents and near 11.09.
Ukraine war continues. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, palmoil and corn are higher.
Overnight, WK made new highs for the move and tested 11.68. Trade adds war premium in low volume. Russia increase attacks on Ukraine port cites. There remains concern about Black Sea wheat exports. Where will buyers replace 30 pct of Black Sea trade which is 30 pct of global trade? US wheat exports are down 17 pct vs last year. US fob prices are not competitive. Rains in central and south US plains helps HRW crop. Too much rain is falling across SRW areas. Informa out today with 2022 wheat acres estimate. Most near 48.4 vs 46.7 last year. Managed funds are 29 pct of open interest which is high and potentially negative.
Overnight, CK tested 7.61. There remains concern about Ukraine corn exports. Where will buyers replace 500 mil bu of Ukraine exports? US corn exports are down 15 pct vs last year. Rains in US Delta could be slowing corn planting there. Informa out today with 2022 corn acres estimate. Most near 92.2 vs 93.4 last year. Managed funds are 25 pct of open interest which is high and potentially negative. CK is also historically high vs the 50 day moving average price.
Overnight, SK tested 17.20. It has been 10 days since China has bought US 2022/23 soybean and 2 weeks buying 2021/22 soybeans. US soybean exports are down 20 pct vs last year. Informa out today with 2022 soybean acres estimate. Most near 88.3 vs 87.2 last year. Managed funds are 25 pct of open interest which is high and potentially negative. SK is also historically high vs the 50 day moving average price.
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