Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar are near new highs. Crude is slightly higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Russia launched largest missile and drone attack on Ukraine electrical grid producing severe damage. US approved Ukraine to use long range missiles on specific targets into Russia. US, EU, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil all have strong politically driven supports and protections that are exposed to rapid and unforecasted changes that could reshape demand and prices.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.03. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. Brazil soybean crop is 82-84 pct planted. Bears are still looking for lower soybean futures due to record high South America supplies, lower China demand for US soybeans and higher US 2025 crop. Trade will be watching to see if new sales for US soybean exports slow which could seasonally slow exports.
CORN
CH is near 4.36. Commit of traders showed Managed funds larger longs than expected. Some feel nearby corn futures are near key support. Dalian corn futures were higher. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. Corn prices supported by strong US export and domestic demand. Some feel higher South America corn crop and higher US 2025 corn crop could send 2025 CZ lower and near 3.50.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.58. KWH is near 5.55. MWH is near 5.93. Russia attacks on Ukraine electrical grid could support wheat futures. Argentina and Australia combined Dec-May wheat exports could be 24.5 mmt vs 18.5 ly. Russia winter wheat acres could be lowest since 2018-19 which could offer support. Russia wheat exports could also be 10 mmt lower than last year. Rains are improving US 2025 winter wheat crop conditions. US spring areas are dry but could see normal winter moisture. Drier west EU weather is helping crop plantings.
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