Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed and well off overnight highs. Volatility is on the rise. SK is down 5 cents and near 15.81. SK high was 16.02. SMK is near 449.7. SMK high was 457. BOK is near 65.83. BOK high was 66.60. CK is unch and near 6.50. CK high was 6.56. WK is up 4 cents and near 8.08. WK high was 8.20. KWH is up 6 cents and near 8.33. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.63.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unchanged and near $93. Gold and silver are higher. Copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Dalian soybeans, soymeal and corn are lower. Palmoil and soyil are higher. Argentina and US PNW and south plains forecast are mostly dry.
CK tested 6.56 on talk of lower South America supplies. Most look for US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,200 mil bu versus USDA 1,540. Increase Russia/Ukraine tension may be forcing longs to the sideline. Drop in Global corn supply could increase demand for US corn and eventually force higher prices to ration demand. Next resistance on monthly corn chart is 7.00.
Scattered rains in Brazil plus increase in Russia/Ukraine tension may be forcing weak longs out of the market. Most look for US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 200 mil bu versus USDA 310. Range of estimates of US 2022/23 soybean carryout is 75-150 mil bu vs USDA baseline 306. Next resistance on monthly corn chart is 16.77.
Wheat futures may be in broad trading range. Uncertainty of Russia invading Ukraine added risk premium Friday and overnight. Managed funds are still short Chicago futures. US PNW and south plains HRW crop areas need rain with none are forecasted into March. WK support 7.80. Resistance 8.20. KWK support 8.20. Resistance 8.50. MWK support 9.50. Resistance 9.78.
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