Written Commentary
Grains are mixed. SU is down 5 cents and near 8.91. CU is down 1 cent and near 3.26. WU is unchanged and near 5.22. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed to lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
Chinese soybean Ag futures (Sep) settled down 47 yuan, down 3 in Corn, up 31 in Soymeal, down 32 in Soyoil, and down 58 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 3 ringgit at 2,666 (basis October) at midsession still supported on supply concerns.
A majority of the US Corn Belt will receive meaningful moisture in the first week of the outlook that will support the needs of crops. Though, there will continue to be some pockets that are too dry. Last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in the far southwestern Corn Belt Jul. 30-Aug. 1 in areas such as eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska and down into the Delta. Last evening’s GFS model was also wetter in the southwestern Corn Belt Aug. 2 – 4 and western Tennessee as well. The 11 to 16 day forecast has the ridging in the 6 to 10 day outlook breaking down and allowing temps to cool down to average to below with close to average rainfall.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 5% ahead of a year ago (11% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year, Corn 17% behind a year ago (19% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans are down 2% on the year (down 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
USDA rated the US corn crop 69 pct good/ex vs 69 last week. 15 pct of the crop yield is below trend including MI and OH. 37 pct of the crop is trend including IL. IN and NE. 39 crop is above trend including IA, MN, SD, WI and MO. 59 pct of the crop is pollinating. Drop in demand and outlook for big US crop continues to weigh on futures.
USDA rated the US soybean crop 69 pct good/ex vs 68 last week. 10 pct of the crop yield is below trend including MI and OH. 40 pct of the crop is trend including AR, IL. IN , ND and TN. 44 crop is above trend including IA, MN, NE, WI and MO. Hope for large China soybean buying US soybeans offers support near key resistance.
74 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested. Lack of farmer selling helps Russian prices but thin vessel line up is weighing on World prices. USDA rated US spring wheat crop 68 pct good/ex vs 68 last week.
On Monday Managed funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 13,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 123,000 Corn; net long 91,000 Soybeans; net short 28,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 24,000 Soyoil.
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