Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch near $72.56. Our prayers are for those in LA, California effected by fires. CBOT closes early today in observation of President Carter funeral. US export sales delayed until Friday. US Fed minutes suggested US Central Bank could hold rates steady for now.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.88. SMH is below 300. BOH is below 42. Dalian soymeal and soyoil were lower. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but showers are forecast after day 11. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,231 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop is est near 4,453 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 457 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. One group estimates Brazil soybean crop near 175.0 mmt and Argentina 49.5. USDA announced 120 mt US soybeans to unknown. MG Brazil state soybean harvest is 6 pct with crop est up 13 pct vs ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.54. Argentina 11-14 day forecast has showers. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,147 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should be near USDA 15,095. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,675 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 1,738. One group estimates Brazil corn crop near 128.0 mmt and Argentina 47.0. CH resistance is near 4.60.Weekly US ethanol production was up vs ly. Stocks were up vs last week. China announced plans to increase grain production 50 mmt by 2030. Brazil 2025 ethanol capacity is up 5 mmt to 25 mmt.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.36. KWH is near 5.50. MWH is near 5.86. World fob index price in $20 dollars below ly at this time. Russia/EU exports will be less than last year but demand is down and Australia and Argentina exports could offset lower Russia/EU. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,565 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 799 mil bu. 2025 Winter wheat seedings are est at 33.3 mil acres vs 33.4 ly. HRW 23.7 vs 23.7 ly. SRW 6.1 vs 6.0 ly. White winter 3.5 vs 3.5 ly. One group est US 2025 winter wheat acres closer to 32.7 with HRW 23.2 and SRW 5.9.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
