Grains Mixed. Drop in Demand Weighing on Corn & Energy Markets.

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SN is up 2 cents and near 8.41. CN is down 3 cents and near 3.20. WN is down 6 cents and near 5.24. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Drop in demand is weighing on corn and Energy markets. Better Europe and Black Sea weather is offering resistance to wheat.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 3 cents; HRW down 2; HRS down 6; Corn was down 6 cents; Soybeans down 3 cents; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil down 115 points.

Delivery registrations are near 1 soybean, 564 soymeal, 2,668 soyoil, 3 corn and 11 Chicago wheat.

US Midwest 6-10 day calls for normal temps and rains. US 8-14 day forecast calls for cooler temps and normal rains.  US south plains will be warm and dry. Europe and Black Sea area could see scattered rains.

Wheat futures are lower. Large premium of wheat over corn could also reduce global feed wheat demand which could add to supplies. Some feel Wheat futures will now trade below recent support going into 2020 winter wheat harvest. US south plains could turn warm and dry.

Corn market is still having trouble recovering from lower US beef, pork, dairy and ethanol margins. Some are now estimating US 2020/21 corn carryout over 3,400 mil bu. This could force Dec corn futures below 3.00. There was active corn planting in NE/IA/SD/MN. Some report IA and IL corn planting may be done. US corn planting could be near 23-24 pct done. US 2 week Midwest weather forecast looks favorable for crops except in Ohio River valley which could remain wet.

Soybean futures were supported by increase China buying US soybeans. Key will be if they continue to buy this week. US 2020 soybean planted acres is expected to increase 9-10 million acres from last year. This could increase final US 2020/21 carryout closer to 500 mil bu. This could drop Nov soybean below 8.00. US soybean planting pace is expected near 7-9 pct.

China’s March soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell 24.8% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, after rains delayed cargoes; imported 2.1 million tons soybeans from Brazil, down from 2.79 million tons in March of last year. However, shipments from the United States reached 1.71 million tons in March, up from last year’s 1.51 million tons. China’s total soybean imports in March fell 13% from the same month last year to their lowest in more than five years. China March Corn Imports were 318,482 Tons, -23.5%. China March Wheat Imports More Than Doubled to 555,536 Tons. China March Soyoil Imports 38,003 Tons, Up Sharply. China March Palm Oil Imports were 306,195 Tons, -44.4%.

On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 12,000 SRW wheat contracts, sold 16,000 corn, sold 7,000 soybeans, sold 2,000 soymeal and sold 6,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds were net long 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 156,000 Corn; net short 2,000 Soybeans; net short 5,000 Soymeal  and net short 15,000 Soyoil (+9,000).

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