Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 11 cents and near 15.30. SMH is near 486.9. BOH is near 60.81. CH is unch and near 6.78. WH is up 3 cents and near 7.68. KWH is down 2 cents and near 8.93. MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.25. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher.
Soybean futures are higher. Spec traders are focusing on USDA dropping Argentina soybean crop to 41 mmt. Rosario estimates is only 34.5. Argentina remains warm ad dry. USDA estimates Brazil crop at a record 153.0 mmt. USDA raised US carryout 15 mil bu due to lower crush. USDA est World 2022/23 crop at 383 mmt vs 358 ly. Crush 324 mmt vs 313. Exports 167 vs 153. USDA kept China imports at 96.0 mmt. Some could see 98.0. China continues to buy Brazil for March. End stocks 102 mmt vs 99. All eyes now on Argentina weather and China demand. China 2022 total trade exports to US were just shy of 2018 record and 536 billion. US exports to China were 153 billion. Total trade a record 690 billion. This with one less China weather balloon.
Corn futures are marginally lower. USDA estimate of US corn exports are still down 20 pct vs ly versus total export commit down 43 pct. USDA dropped US ethanol demand. USDA also estimate Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt vs Rosario est of 42.5. USDA estimated of World crop is 1,151 mmt vs 1,216 ly. Brazil is still a record 123 mmt. USDA had to drop domestic use to 1,162 vs 1,202 ly. Trade is estimated at 181 vs 204 ly. USDA did raise Ukraine exports 2 mmt to 22.5. But end stocks dropped to only 3 mmt. Early guesses for Ukraine 2023 crop is only 15 mmt. USDA raised EU corn imports to 23.5 mmt and up 19 pct vs ly versus current import pace of up 77 pct.
Wheat futures rallied despite a mostly neutral USDA report. USDA est World wheat crop at 784 mmt vs 779 ly. Argentina 12 vs 22, Canada 34 vs 22, Australia 38 vs 36, Russia 93 vs 75, Ukraine 22 vs 33. Trade is est at 213 mmt vs 203 ly and end stocks 269 vs 276. Matif wheat futures are at 1 month high. WH is stuck near 7.60. Dry US weather is helping KWH near 8.90. Need for protein helps MWH near 9.25.
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