Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are marginally lower. SF is down 1 cent and near 11.51. SMZ is near 392.6. BOZ is near 37.06. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.16. WZ is down 3 cents and near 5.94. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 5.50. US stocks are lower. Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed but near 41.50. Hope for vaccine is helping prices despite lower demand and higher supplies. Gold is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 35 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 9 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 49 ringgit at 3,395 (basis January) still supported by tight supplies.
The Brazilian growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period remains with showers and thunderstorms bringing fair to good amount of rainfall to 95% of the growing areas. Only Rio Grande do Sul looks to miss most of the rains. Temps will run close to average. The Argentine growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period continues with limited rainfall of light amounts covering 55% of the growing area. Temps will run near average before cooling for the weekend and early next week.
The 6 to 10 day forecast has dry weather dominating the Plains and Midwest. Temps go back up to above average for most of next week.
Soybean futures supported by dry South America weather. Trade looking for new China business. China US soybean export commit is near 33 mmt with 12 shipped. Open sales near 15 and unknown 6. Some are already increasing US soybean exports versus USDA guess and fear a US carryout below 100 mil bu.
World vegoil prices continue to trade higher on lower Asia, EU and Black Sea supplies. China demand growing. Prices are led by Ukraine sunoil, Rotterdam canola oil, Brazil soyoil. India bought Argentina soyoil at +520.
US corn basis is lower on increase US farmer selling. Processors bids remain strong. Weekly US ethanol production could be near last week, stocks slightly higher. Corn futures supported by tighter World supplies and need for good South America crops, lower Ukraine crop.
Wheat futures dropped on talk of higher Russia exports. Wheat supported by dry US and Black Sea weather.
On USDA Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; bought 11,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 8,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 344,000 Corn; net long 289,000 Soybeans; net long 98,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.
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