Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is 12 cents and near 14.42. SMK is near 421.2. BOK is near 52.54. CK is up 3 cents and near 5.49. WK is up 3 cents and near 6.56. KWK is up 3 cents and near 6.30. Grain futures did trade even higher overnight but have backed off from those levels. Overnight highs were near SK 14.60, SMK near 424.4, BOK near 53.23, CK near 5.56, WK near 6.62 and KWK near 6.35. US stocks are lower led by Tech stocks after Microsoft was hacked may be by China. Crude tested 67.79 on Saudi Arabia missile attack but is now near 65.90. US Dollar is higher. Gold and copper are lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 7 cents; HRW down 7; HRS up 5; Corn was down 1 cent; Soybeans up 22 cents; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil up 195 points. Crushing margins were down 6 cents at $0.60 (July); Oil share up 1%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 30 yuan in soybeans, up 24 in Corn, up 50 in Soymeal, up 314 in Soyoil, and up 276 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 142 ringgit at 3,883 (basis May) following rival vegoil markets, jump in crude oil prices on news of missile attacks on Saudi oil installations.
Some of the higher trade was also linked to forecast of wet weather across N Brazil and dry weather across central and S Brazil and most of Argentina. Some will begin got lower their estimates of Argentina corn and soybean crops. Brazil corn plantings may be delayed. Corn exports may not be available until July-Aug.
Some feel overnight highs may have been overdone this early in 2021 despite talk that tightening US 20/21 corn and soybean balance sheets suggest US 2021 weather needs to be perfect and US farmers will need to plant record 2021 acres to satisfy demand and increase supplies. There is some talk of a wet March and Dry July-August. Stay tuned! Lower Black Sea old crop supplies also suggest 2021 Black Sea weather will also have to be perfect.
New USDA Supply and Demand report is March 9.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,470 mil bu vs USDA 1,502, soybean at 117 mil bu vs USDA 120
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 839 mil bu vs USDA 826, World 304.3 mmt vs USDA 304.2
Trade est Brazil soybean crop near 133.1 vs USDA 133, Argentina near 47.4 vs USDA 48
Trade est Brazil corn crop near 108.3 vs USDA 109, Argentina near 47 vs USDA 47.5
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; 32,000 contracts of Corn; 14,000 Soybeans; 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 356,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 62,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil.
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