Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower after making new highs on Thursday. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and back to near $72. Gold is higher. Some are looking for higher gold prices. Drop of 50 basis points in US rates raised question of why so aggressive.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.17. Some still feel SX could be in a choppy 9.55-10.31 range. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. No USDA announcements of new US soybean sales. Key to soybean futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil future were higher. Weekly US export sales were 64 mil bu. Some could see US Sep 1 soybean stocks est near 329 mil bu vs USDA est of 340. Palmoil is higher.
CORN
CZ is near 4.07. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. US Miss river levels are near record low. US domestic corn basis is lower ahead of harvest. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. Higher US barge freight has pushed US export prices above other origins. Key to corn futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. Weekly US export sales were down to 33 mil bu. China resisting buying US corn. US Sep 1 corn stocks est near 1,877 mil bu vs USDA est of 1,812.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.70. Overnight trade is higher. Key is demand for US wheat, 2024 south hemisphere and Russia 2025 crop weather. Russia wheat still being offered and lowest origin. Weekly US export sales were only 9 mil bu. US Sep 1 wheat stocks est near 1,980 mil bu vs 1,767 ly.
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