Written Commentary
Morning Grain Outlook
Grains are higher. SU is up 8 cents and near 8.88. SX is up 8 cents and near 8.91. CU is up 5 cents and near 3.18. CZ is up 6 cents and near 3.33. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.02. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 4.32. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 14 yuan in soybeans, up 1 in Corn, up 15 in Soymeal, up 198 in Soyoil, and up 118 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 42 ringgit at 2,730 (basis October) following rival vegoils.
US Midwest 6-10 day and 8-14 day US Midwest forecast is cool and dry. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest sees some ridging bringing above average temps and limited rains for the region in the early part of the period but, then flattening out to allow rains and cooler temps in much of the areas.
Grain futures are up overnight on continued short cover. There is talk that yesterday China bought 10-15 US new crop soybean cargoes. US/China trade talks are August 15. World vegoil prices are higher due to talk China will import for their reserves. USDA FSA corn and soybean crop insurance enrollment acres were well below USDA planted acres estimate. FSA admitted they were missing data due to delays in enrollment. US Midwest weather forecast is drier. Argentina remains dry. Russia farmer increased cash selling. China announced chicken wings from Brazil contained the virus.
Some are estimating US 2020/21 corn carryout closer to 3,260 versus USDA 2,756. This due to a little higher crop and lower demand. They would sell CZ near 3.40-3.45.
Same group are estimating US 2020/21 soybean carryout closer to 710 versus USDA 610. This due to a lower demand. They would sell SX near 9.00-9.10.
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 250-800 mt versus 605 last week, corn 400-1,400 mt versus 2,600 last week and soybean near 1,200-2,300 mt versus 1,745 last week.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 10,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 8,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 157,000 Corn; net long 47,000 Soybeans; net short 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 52,000 Soyoil.
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