Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 1 cent and near 12.06. SMZ is near 332.57 BOZ is near 50.30. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.54. WZ is up 5 cents and near 7.72. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.83. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 10.14. OZ is near 7.40. USDA week!
US stocks are slightly higher. US Dollar is mixed to lower. Crude is higher. Most commodities are higher.
GSI Commodity Index finding support overnight due to higher energy prices. Are we inflation or stagflation? US Fed begin tapering. Could raise US rates in 2022. US infrastructure bill could add demand for steel, energy, and industrial metals. Rebuild America?
China showed a positive trade surplus. Still, China imported 5.1 mmt soybeans lowest since March, 2020. China corn prices higher. US dry in east and SW. Should help corn and soybean harvest. US north plains snow. S Brazil and most of Argentina dry. Russia is dry.
Soybean futures dropped last week on talk of Brazil farmers selling old crop soybean due to early harvest. US soybean futures near support. Good South America crops, slow US export sales and bearish USDA report negative. Average guess for US soybean crop 4,484 and carryout 362. Private analyst est carryout 385-430. Early est for 2022/23 US acres 87.3 crop 4,455, use 4,402, carryout 450. Exports 2,020, crush 2,260.
Corn futures dropped last week on talk of higher US and Black Sea corn yields and less than needed US export sales. Some feel CZ is 5.40-5.90 range. Trade est US crop 15,050 carryout 1,480. Some 1,240-1,440. 2022/23 US corn acres 92.4 crop 15,210, use 14,725, carryout 1,950. Exports 2,150, ethanol 5,400. US corn harvest is near 90 pct.
Wheat futures are volatile at 8 year highs. Decline in Ocean freight could increase World wheat trade. Some feel KWZ support near 7.70, MWZ 10.00. Tight World supplies, unknown 2022 weather supportive. Average guess for US wheat carryout 581. Some 570-6.40. World stocks 276.5. Exports 820-875 vs USDA 875. Early est for 2022/23 US acres 48.8 crop 2,059, use 1,940-2,070, exports 850-885, carryout 650-875
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