Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 14 cents and near 15.70. SMK is near 443.0. BOK is near 66.08. CK is up 4 cents and near 6.41. WK is up 2 cents and near 7.88. KWK is up 2 cents and near 8.12. MWK is up 3 cents and near 9.53.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Some link higher commodity prices to evening positions before long holiday weekend. CBOT will be closed Monday due to holiday
Dalian soybeans, soymeal. soyoil, palmoil and corn are lower. Argentina and south plains forecast are mostly dry. East US HRW, E Midwest, Delta and SE could see strong storms. Lakes snow.
Soybeans futures are higher and trying to rebound from yesterday’s selloff. Much of Tuesday selling was due to reduced concern about Russia invading Ukraine. US President would not confirm the withdrawal of military from Belarus. Russian troops remain on Ukraine east and south borders and Navy blockading Ukraine ports. RGDS lowered their soybean crop to 11 mmt vs CONAB 13.8. MGDS and MG yields are declining. Brazil crop estimated now at 122 mmt vs USDA 134. Argentina is dry. Crop could be closer to 40 mmt vs USDA 48. China needs to buy 8 mmt World beans per month to reach 97 mmt goal.
Corn futures also modestly higher. Trade will be watching if ethanol production is down due to weather (like lower Jan soybean crush) and if stocks were drawn down. Argentina corn crop could drop 6 mmt from USDA 54 mmt. Ukraine corn exports key to satisfying global demand. USDA est Ukraine corn exports near 33.5 mmt. Asia takes 17.6 mmt with China 11.8, EU 10.5 mmt and North Africa 5.7.
Wheat futures are up 2-3 cents. Much of Tuesday selling was due to reduced concern about Russia invading Ukraine. US President would not confirm the withdrawal of military from Belarus. Russian troops remain on Ukraine east and south borders and Navy blockading Ukraine ports. Egypt announced a wheat tender for next week. Russia parliament passed legislation making Dondas and Luhansik Russian states. Wheat volatility has not changed. Long term prices may depend more on US and North Hemisphere spring and summer weather. Russia and Ukraine tension is still not off the radar.
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