Written Commentary
Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 10.62. SMZ is near 377.5. BOZ near 32.86. Building China and Malaysian vegoil supplies has offered resistance to World vegoil prices. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.06. WZ is up 6 cents and near 6.33. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 5.69. US stocks are higher. Today is deadline for new US stimulus package. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed to higher. Gold is mixed to lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 88 yuan in soybeans, down 6 in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, down 46 in Soyoil, and down 78 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 84 ringgit at 2,860 (basis January) supported by Oct 1-20 export data.
Last night’s GFS model run showed little to no changes with the rounds of accumulating snow that will impact portions of the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Notable dryness will continue in west-central and southwestern Hard Red Winter Wheat production areas through Saturday.
South America is still expected to have improving weather over the next two weeks. A rain event will impact a majority of Argentina with meaningful moisture Saturday through Sunday benefiting summer crops.
There is an increase debate among traders if US corn, soybean, soymeal futures are too high and funds too long versus concern about Russia, South America and US south plains weather and increase demand for US corn and soybean exports. Is China slowing their buying of US soybeans? Are they increasing their buying of US corn? Brazil has suspended their corn and soybean import tax. Domestic Brazil corn prices are record high and up 79 pct yoy. Some feel they could run low of corn and soybean old crop supplies before their next harvest. Ukraine corn export prices are +179 CZ versus +40 ly.
USDA estimated that 75 pct of US soybean crop is harvested versus 61 last week. Fastest states are IL, IA, MN, ND and SD. Slowest states are AR, KY,LA, MO and TN.
US corn harvest is 60 pct done versus 41 last week. Fastest states are KY and TN. Slowest states are IN, MI, OH and WI. USDA rated the crop 61 pct good/ex, unchanged from last week. Highest rated states are KY, MN, MO, SD,TN and WI. Lowest rated states are IA, OH, MI, NE, ND and TX.
USDA estimated that 77 pct of the US winter wheat crop is planted. KS is 84, MO is 42, AR is 34 and WA is 88.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 SRW Wheat; bought 9,000 Corn; bought 5,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 62,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 216,000 Corn; net long 237,000 Soybeans; net long 91,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 75,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
