Written Commentary
by Steve Freed
Grains are higher. SN is up 7 cents and near 8.39. CN is up 3 cents and near 3.17. WN is up 7 cents and near 5.124 KWN is up 6 cents and near 4.84. Stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher.
POTUS said that within next week or two he will say if China is adhering to the trade deal. Wire service are reporting that China may be in the market to buy US soybeans. Corn futures may be following higher energy prices. Corn and soymeal could also be supported by talk of US meat processing plants slowly reopening. Virus stressing global economies continues to offer resistance to commodity prices.
US and Global weather remains mostly favorable for 2020 crops except some dryness in US south plains. Cold US temps should not hurt early corn crop or winter wheat. US Midwest weather looks favorable after May 14.
Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 600-1,000 mt vs 1,078 last week, corn sales near 600-1,100 mt vs 1,356 last week and wheat 200-600 mt versus 622 last week.
Average trade guess for US 2019/20 corn carryout is near 2,224 mil bu vs 2,092 previous, soybean 488 vs 480 and wheat 968 vs 970.
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is near 3.389 mil bu, soybean 430 and wheat 814.
Average trade guess for US 2020 winter wheat crop is 1.245 mil bu vs 1,304 last year, HRW 739 vs 833 and SRW 280 vs 239.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 161,000 Corn; net long 4,000 in Soybeans; net short 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 11,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
