Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are mixed. SF is up 2 cents and near 11.48. SMF is near 387.5. BOF is near 36.89. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.07. CH21 is near 4.17. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.86. WH21 is near 5.95. KWZ is unchanged and near 5.44. KWH21 is near 5.53. US stocks are higher. Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
US south plains, south Brazil and east Argentina and parts of Black Sea weather is mostly dry.
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 700-1,600 mt, corn 800-1,800, wheat 200-700. US farmer increase cash soybean old crop selling due to strong SH-SX21 inverse. SF is overbought.
There appeared to be general commodity and financial market selling due to increases virus cases in US/UK.
POTUS signed an executive order banning US investment in China companies linked to their military.
Argentina said China found traces of COVID-19 on packaging of South American country’s beef.
Argentina weather is still less than normal Soybean crop is 20 pct panted vs 24 ave. Crop 46.5 mmt vs USDA 51. Argentina corn plantings 31 pct vs 41 ly. Crop rated 35 pct good/ex vs 49 ly. Crop est near 47 mmt vs USDA 50.
South Brazil is dry. 2021 soybean plantings late which will delay 2nd crop corn plantings and soybean harvest.
Most still feel USDA China corn import guess of 13 mt is low. Some est imports at 22 mmt. US cheapest origin.
World wheat prices traded lower following lower US. This despite tight EU supplies and dry US/Russia weather. Spread between US HRW and French wheat export prices has narrowed to only $2, $5 versus Russia.
Indian edible oil refiners may reduce palm oil imports to make space for soyoil as a rally in the price of palm due to output worries reduced the spread between the two US Oct NOPA soybean crush is est near 177 mil bu versus 175 ly. Soyoil stocks near 1,448 vs 1,423 ly.
On USDA Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 wheat, 35,000 corn, 7,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal and 1,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 36,000 wheat, 309,000 corn, 282,000 soybeans, 94,000 soymeal and 97,000 soyoil.
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