Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is sharply lower. Gold is lower. Market volatility could increase as US election nears. Israel attacks on Iran were less than feared. Crude dropped on the news. Brazil is getting rain. Rains are forecast for US Midwest and east plains. US September Food price index was a record high 332.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 9.91 but up from session low near 9.86. Dalian soybean, soymeal;, plamoil and soyoil futures were sharply lower. Last week, China est sow herd at 40.6 million or down 4 pct ly. In 2021, China est sow herd to be near 43.0 million by 2025. US harvest is near done. Brazil soybean plantings were est at 18 pct vs 28 ly. By today it could be near 30. Some est Brazil crop at record 169 mmt which should provide pressure to futures February forward.
CORN
CZ is near 4.14 but up from session low near 4.11. Dalian corn futures were lower. US corn export sales have increased 293 mil bu since Oct 6. US corn export prices are higher and no longer competitive vs Ukraine and South America. Some feel US corn export sales may have been front loaded in case US election resulted in new tariffs on imports. Low water raising US logistic challenges and offering weakness to domestic basis. Brazil futures are higher. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.30.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.67, down for 2nd straight week but up from session low near 5.61. KWZ is lower and near 5.71 and up from session low near 5.65. MWZ is lower and near 6.02. EU and Black sea prices are lower. Australia and Argentina crop could be up 7-8 mmt vs ly. Matif traders short puts which could trigger selling futures. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.00.
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