Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grain calls are mixed. SH is near 15.24. SMH is near 471.0. BOH is near 64.07. CH is near 6.78. WH is near 7.92. KWH is near 8.88. MWH is near 9.38. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold continues higher. Copper is higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Most 2023 grain news is the same as 2022. Key to especially soybeans, soymeal and corn price direction could be Argentina and S Brazil January weather. Argentina saw better than expected rains over the long weekend. 10 day outlook is dry. Then US spring weather. Some feel US farmers should increase old and new crop cash sales on higher soybean and corn futures. Weak La Nina could suggest above average US 2023 corn and soybean crop and 2023/24 carryout.
Talk of record Brazil 2023 crops and continue lower Ukraine corn and Russia wheat prices could offer resistance to 2023 soybean, corn and wheat futures. Wheat futures are supported by talk that 2023 export supplies may have peaked. Higher Dollar today could offer resistance. Funds remain short wheat against long soybean and corn positions. Corn futures may find resistance near 7.00 unless Argentina crop drops below 45 mmt. World corn demand is absent and US ethanol data is bearish. Demand for US soybean exports are in decline.
USDA report Jan 12. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout near USDA 1,257, soybean 260 vs USDA 220 and wheat 585 vs USDA 571. Same group est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,040(180.5 yield, 3.4 mil more acres), soybean 400(1.0 mil more acres) and wheat 600(1.5 mil more acres).
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