Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grain calls are higher. SH is near 14.84. SMH is near 451.3. BOH is near 64.65. CH is near 6.66. WH is near 7.76. KWH is near 8.76. MWH is near 9.31. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Most commodities are higher. Copper gapped open higher and is near November highs. China lifting quarantine restrictions has commodities higher. US Dollar is lower.
Soybean futures are near 15.00 again. Argentina 10 day forecast is dry. Trade fighting the fact that Brazil could see a record soybean crop versus lower Argentina crop. One crop watcher lowered Argentina soybean crop to 43.0 mmt vs USDA 49.5. Brazil is est at 151.0 vs USDA 152.0 and 127.0 ly. Brazil is starting early harvest. Demand for US soybean export should slowly decline. BOH is finally finding support from an overreaction to EPA data. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were sharply higher.
Corn futures could test 6.70 on new technical buying. Russia bombing Ukraine continues despite talk Putin wants peace talks. Brazil and France corn exports are slowing. US Midwest temps are on the rise this week. CH has been in a trading range between 6.50- 7.00 since early August. CH ended Friday near 6.66. Next resistance is 6.70. Technical buying started when Crude traded over $76 and CH over 6.53. One crop watcher lowered Argentina corn crop to 46.0 mmt vs USDA 55.0. Brazil is est at 125.0 vs USDA 126.0 and 116.0 ly.
It appears that KWH is trying to form a bottom near 8.21. 9.00 is key resistance. Argentina weather remains dry. Egypt is tendering for wheat. There is some questioning Russia wheat export pace but weather is improving for vessel loading and shipping. China surrounded Taiwan and N Korea sent drones over S Korea. Hard to put a value on grains, energies and currencies with regional tensions is on the rise. Switch from La Nina to El Nino could increase chances for above trend N Hemisphere 2023 yields.
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