Global Ag News Headlines July 21

TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS

Overnight trade has SRW unchanged, HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat up 2 cents, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $1.50, and Soyoil down 5 points.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 47 yuan, down 3 in Corn, up 31 in Soymeal, down 32 in Soyoil, and down 58 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 3 ringgit at 2,666 (basis October) at midsession still supported on supply concerns.

U.S. Weather Forecast

A majority of the Corn Belt will receive meaningful moisture in the first week of the outlook that will support the needs of crops; though, there will continue to be some pockets that are too dry; last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in the far southwestern Corn Belt Jul. 30-Aug. 1 in areas such as eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska and down into the Delta

Last evening’s GFS model was also wetter in the southwestern Corn Belt Aug. 2 – 4 and western Tennessee as well.

 The 11 to 16 day forecast has the ridging in the 6 to 10 day outlook breaking down and allowing temps to cool down to average to below with close to average rainfall.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 13,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 123,000 Corn; net long 91,000 Soybeans; net short 28,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 24,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,800; Corn up 8,700; Soybeans up 6,800 contracts; Soymeal down 1,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,700.

There were changes in registrations (Rice down 39)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,956 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387. 

Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia postpones tender for 400,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea seeks 207,000t optional-origin corn, 70,000t feed wheat—Iran bought 200,000t optional-origin corn, 350,000t soymeal.

U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 74% (trade estimate was 79%) versus 68% last week, 66% a year ago, 75% average.

Spring Wheat was rated 68% good to excellent (trade estimate was 68%) versus 68% last week, and 76% a year ago; 25% fair (24% a week ago, 20% a year ago), and; 7% poor to very poor (8% last week, 4% a year ago).

Corn doughing was 9% versus 3% a week ago, 4% last year, and 7% average.

U.S. Oats harvested was 20% versus 12% a week ago, 11% last year, and 19% average.

U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 25% versus 11% a week ago, 6% last year, and 21% average.

Last week’s favorable weather led several U.S. Crop Watch growers to increase corn condition and yield scores, bringing those eight-field averages to the highest levels for any week since Crop Watch began in 2018; the soybean scores are also among the highest, but much of the corn could get by with one or two more good rains, while the soybeans will still depend on good moisture through next month.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had

—Wheat exports running up 5% ahead of a year ago (11% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year

—Corn 17% behind a year ago (19% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season

–Soybeans are down 2% on the year (down 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year

Wire story reports China is actively booking this year’s U.S. soybean crop and has made a historic string of purchases this month, but soybean futures remain near the lowest levels in recent memory for the time of year; Chicago soybean futures for November delivery finished at $9.00 per bushel on Monday, the contract’s fourth settle at or above $9 since early March; that is within a similar realm to mid-July prices in the past two years, but U.S. supply outlooks are much lighter by comparison; the soybean market appears either skeptical that Chinese interest in the U.S. oilseed will continue, or there are ideas that the U.S. soybean harvest could be larger than is currently predicted, or a combination of both.

China plans to sell rice and wheat from state reserves to animal feed producers who are struggling with high corn prices, which have soared more than 20% in some areas this year amid tightening supplies; Beijing may offload about 10 million tons of rice in the first batch of sales; the government is doing this to check corn prices

A rally in China’s rapeseed oil futures is pushing its price spread with other edible oils to the widest in years, with lower imports of the oilseed from Canada and tightening supplies spurring trading interest and volumes; the spread between rapeseed oil on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and soyoil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange widened to as much as 2,500 yuan ($357.50) per ton on Tuesday, the greatest it’s been since 2012.

China will sell 10,000 tons of frozen pork from its state reserves on July 23, said the China Merchandise Reserve Management Center; China has already sold about 420,000 tons of pork from reserves so far this year to tame pork prices that have soared after the deadly African swine fever decimated the domestic pig herd.

The wholesale prices of China’s agricultural products edged up Monday, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; the latest China agricultural product wholesale price index came in at 116.57, up 0.44 points from Friday; the average wholesale price of pork, a staple meat in China, went up 0.6 percent to 48.83 yuan (about 6.98 U.S. dollars) per kg, while the price of eggs rose 3.3 percent to 6.87 yuan per kg.

Cattalini Terminais Marítimos, a port terminal operator which handles almost 70% of Brazil’s soyoil exports at Paranaguá port, predicts shipments of that commodity will rise by around 26% this year after a drought reduced the levels of Argentina’s Paraná river, a main thoroughfare; China and India are the main destinations of Brazil’s soyoil; the coronavirus outbreak in Brazil, where COVID-19 infections and deaths are the second highest in the world, also had a negative impact on domestic diesel demand, thus increasing the volumes of soyoil that Brazil can sell on export markets; soyoil is the main ingredient of biodiesel, which is blended into diesel oil; currently, the minimum biodiesel ontent in diesel oil is 12%.

Russian wheat export prices rose for the second consecutive week last week due to the slow pace of harvesting, which started later than a year ago, and weak supply from farmers in southern regions; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $208.5 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6.5 from the previous week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $209 a ton, up $4.

Ukraine’s DPZKU exported 73,680 tons of wheat flour in the 2019/20 season, the state grain firm said, up 42% from 51,900 tons in the previous season; that accounted for 22% of Ukraine’s total exports of 334,120 tons for the season, which runs from July to June.

Ukraine’s seaport grain exports fell to 1.95 million tons in June, the last month of the 2019/20 season, from 3.68 million tons in May due to lower shipments of wheat and corn, analyst APK-Inform said; exports of wheat fell to 214,000 tons, while corn shipments declined to 1.54 million tons

Following a multiyear drought in eastern Australia, much-improved seasonal conditions and rainfall in the first half of 2020 have set the scene for a sharp increase in wheat production, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says; its local office forecasts wheat production at 27 million metric tons in the 2020-21 marketing year, a 78% increase from 2019-20 as a result of higher acreage and improved yields.

ASX Eastern wheat is trading A$4.50 higher at A$337.50 a ton.