Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—NOPA MONTHLY CRUSH—
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 5, Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 5, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 25 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 41 yuan, down 2 in Corn, up 3 in Soymeal, up 100 in Soyoil, and up 142 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 35 ringgit at 2,535 (basis September) at midsession; export prospects questioned.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast has models in agreement with moderate rainfall for most regions of the Midwest
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest remains mixed with the GFS model showing average to a bit below average rains and average temps while, the European still sides with ridging.
The Southern Plains is seen dry over the 6 to 10 day period.
The U.S. Delta has mainly dry weather over the 6 to 10 day period.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 7,000 Corn; bought 5,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 190,000 Corn; net long 83,000 Soybeans; net short 30,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 14,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,100; Corn up 11,200; Soybeans up 620 contracts; Soymeal down 4,500 lots, and; Soyoil down 480.
Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; 168 Soyoil; 87 Rice; ZERO Corn; 16 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 1 SRW Wheat, and; N/A HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Rice up 87; HRW Wheat down 4)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 97; HRW Wheat 48, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 114,000t Russian wheat—Jordan bought 60,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia passed on 400,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 131,000t optional-origin corn—
U.S. soybean crushings likely fell to a nine-month low in June as rising soybean prices eroded processor margins, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday.
NOPA members likely processed 162.168 million bushels of soybeans last month; if realized, it would be down 4.4% from the 169.584 million bushels crushed in May but well above the June 2019 crush of 148.843 million bushels; it would also be a third straight monthly decline and the smallest monthly crush since September 2019.
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of June were seen dipping slightly to 1.813 billion pounds, down from 1.880 billion at the end of May but above the 1.535 billion pounds at the end of June 2019; if realized, it would be the smallest end-of-month soyoil supply since December.
Iowa-based seed companies owned or partially owned by billionaire Harry Stine won approval for at least six loans – totaling $2.55 million to $6.35 million – in the first round of the federal government’s pandemic aid program for small businesses, an analysis of government data showed.
U.S. Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, spoke with the Illinois Corn Growers Association today to discuss his support for farmers during the COVID-19 crisis, including assistance in rebuilding locks and dams, restoring strong ethanol production, and improving export markets; during the call, Durbin talked about the distribution to date of more than $5 billion in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program payments to livestock and row crop farmers experiencing financial hardship.
Manitoba crop report
Crops are generally in average to good condition, excepting low-lying areas subject to frequent rainfall over the past two weeks
China’s 2020 summer grain output rose 0.9% from the previous year to 142.81 million tons, the statistics bureau said; wheat output rose 0.6% to 131.68 million tons from 2019, boosted by higher yields, despite a fall in planted acreage of the grain
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin said that an investigation into the quality of corn in one of its warehouses had found none of the problems alleged in a video shared on social media at the weekend.
The wholesale prices of China’s agricultural products edged down Wednesday, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; the latest China agricultural product wholesale price index came in at 116.08, down 0.21 points from Tuesday; the average wholesale price of pork stayed unchanged at 48.8 yuan (about 6.97 U.S. dollars) per kg, while eggs gained 2.5 percent to 6.63 yuan per kg.
Pork prices in China rose last week as bullish sentiment motivated pig farms to reduce the supply of hogs, official data showed Tuesday; from July 6 to 10, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 50.6 yuan (about 7.23 U.S. dollars) per kg, up 6.8 percent week on week.
Sovecon, one of Moscow’s leading agriculture consultancies, said it had cut its forecast for Russia’s 2020 wheat crop to 79.7 million tons from an earlier forecast of 80.8 million tons due to low yields in Russia’s southern regions.
Exports of Russian grain are expected to total 41.7 million tons in the current agricultural season, according to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service; supplies of wheat to the global market may reach 33.2 million tons; that’s in line with pre-pandemic projections from industry experts, who said in February deliveries could be in the range of 32-to-42 million tons; in the previous, 2018-2019 agricultural season, Russia exported 35.2 million tons of wheat to the global market, after delivering a record 40.449 million tons in the previous season
Egypt will once again allow agriculture inspectors to travel to check wheat cargoes at their port of origin
Saudi Arabia’s state grain buyer SAGO has started the second phase of the sale of its flour mills on Tuesday and will begin receiving pre-qualification bids on July 16
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jul. 1-10 fell 20.4 percent to 461,806 tons from 580,096 tons shipped during Jun. 1-10, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1 – 15 fell 9.1 percent to 831,155 tons from 914,120 tons shipped during June 1 – 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
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